It can be hard to pin down what is guiding Donald Trump a month into US and Israel's programme of strikes on Iran.
But it is clear he has an eye on the oil markets.
A word - or social media post - from the US president about his plans used to spark big moves in prices, as investors leaped on signs the conflict could escalate or come to an end.
But in recent days, traders appear to be growing more sceptical about the value of his comments.
Oil was trading at around $72 a barrel before 28 February, when the strikes on Iran began.
Last week it peaked at $118 a barrel on 19 March and as of Friday afternoon was sitting at just below $112 - significantly up from its pre-war price.
Here are some moments from the last month where Trump and the markets appear to have bounced off each other - with varying effects
Jonathan Raymond, investment manager at Quilter Cheviot, says energy prices have become a proxy for wider geopolitical and economic risks, spiking when Trump's language grows aggressive and easing when his rhetoric de-escalates.
He says markets are rightfully sensitive to those signals, given the big economic risks that come with rising oil prices.
"Investors are trying to price genuine uncertainty," he says. "Markets can look skittish or confused, but what they're really doing is managing event risk in real time, with oil sitting right at the centre of that."
But it can be difficult for investors to figure out how to trade, especially since some of Trump's comments seem aimed at influencing oil prices, rather than communicating policy, says Brian Szytel at the Bahnsen Group.
"As they say, the first casualty of war is truth," he says. “I suspect some of the rhetoric back-and-forth around productive talks, and the opposite, very much are centred around just moving the price of oil.”
On Thursday, minutes after US stock markets saw their biggest drop since the start of the Iran war, Trump said talks with Iran were going "very well" and he was delaying military strikes on Iran's energy infrastructure until at least 6 April.
